In the city of Pamplona, Osasuna will host Levante in an early La Liga clash. Osasuna, ranked 16th, are seeking their first points of the season, while Levante’s position remains unrecorded. Despite their low league standing, Osasuna’s recent improvement, with three wins in their last five, suggests they are gaining momentum. With a strong home
Osasuna vs Levante — Analysis and Odds | La Liga | 24/08/2026
19.08.2026
07:03
Osasuna
66%
VS
Levante
13%
51%Model accuracy (last 60 days) — 135/264
★ BEST BET
Double Chance 1X @ 1.2
Osasuna are favoured with a 66% probability of victory, a significant edge over the implied odds of 54%. Their recent home form, with three consecutive wins, contrasts sharply with Levante's poor away performance, where they have lost five of their last nine. Osasuna's xG of 2.19 further supports their attacking superiority.
💡 Osasuna's xG of 2.19 against Levante's 0.89 highlights a considerable attacking advantage, suggesting a strong likelihood of a home win.
In the city of Pamplona, Osasuna will host Levante in an early La Liga clash. Osasuna, ranked 16th, are seeking their first points of the season, while Levante's position remains unrecorded. Despite their low league standing, Osasuna's recent improvement, with three wins in their last five, suggests they are gaining momentum. With a strong home record of scoring 1.3 goals per game, they have the potential to capitalise on Levante's travel woes. Levante, having suffered a heavy 3-0 defeat away to Espanyol, face a stern test. The model favours an Osasuna win, with a 66% probability, emphasising their home advantage.
Team Statistics
📊 Additional Markets
Double Chance 1X1.2
Double Chance X21.95
Double Chance 121.22
Form Guide: The Last Month in Focus
Osasuna's recent form shows promise, with three wins in their last five outings. They secured victories against Norwich and Ipswich away, both 2-1, and a commanding 2-0 home win over Racing Santander. However, they faltered at home against Al Ain, losing 0-2. Their shooting accuracy has improved, as seen in their win streak. Levante's form is mixed; they triumphed 3-1 at Castellón but were thrashed 3-0 by Espanyol. Their away form is inconsistent, which could impact their confidence. Osasuna's form suggests a team finding rhythm, particularly at home, while Levante's travel struggles highlight defensive vulnerabilities.
Prediction: What the Environment Suggests
Osasuna's strong home form and Levante's away vulnerabilities make a compelling case for a home win. The model's 66% probability for an Osasuna victory, priced at odds of 1.52, offers value against the implied odds. While Levante have shown sporadic away resilience, their defensive issues on the road are a concern. Osasuna's recent home performances, coupled with their higher expected goals, reinforce the prediction. A Double Chance on Osasuna or a draw at odds of 1.2 provides a safer alternative, acknowledging Levante's potential to disrupt.
The Home Factor: How Much Does It Matter Here?
Osasuna's home form is a crucial factor in this fixture. With four wins, two draws, and four losses at home, they average 1.3 goals both scored and conceded per game, indicating a balanced but resilient approach. Their recent home victories, including a 2-0 win against Racing Santander, highlight their potential to exploit home advantage. In contrast, Levante struggle on the road, winning only two of their last nine away matches and conceding an average of 1.89 goals per game. Their defensive frailties away from home could be pivotal, as Osasuna look to assert dominance in familiar surroundings. The data suggests that Osasuna's home advantage is significant, and Levante's poor away record is unlikely to counteract it.
The Decisive Statistical Battlegrounds
The first key battleground is Osasuna's home attack against Levante's away defence. Osasuna average 1.3 goals at home, while Levante concede 1.89 away, tipping the scales in Osasuna's favour. The second battle involves Levante's away attack, scoring just 1.0 per game, against Osasuna's home defence. Osasuna's recent defensive solidity, with a clean sheet against Racing Santander, suggests they can stifle Levante's efforts. Lastly, set-pieces could be decisive. Osasuna's average of 4.6 corners at home contrasts with Levante's 5.2, but Osasuna's ability to convert these opportunities could be crucial. The home attack vs away defence stands out as the most significant, aligning with the recommended bet on Osasuna.
Frequently Asked Questions
1
2
3
What is Osasuna's recent form?
Osasuna's last five results: lost 0-2 to Al Ain, lost 2-1 to Napoli, won 2-1 at Norwich, won 2-1 at Ipswich, won 2-0 against Racing Santander. Home record: 4 wins, scoring 1.3 goals on average, with 3 clean sheets. Form shows improvement.
4
Which players are key to watch in Osasuna vs Levante?
Osasuna's collective attack, with an xG of 2.19, creates better chances. Levante's attack, averaging 1.5 goals per game, is less potent, particularly away. Osasuna's home strength in attack is pivotal.
